How long can someone live with lung cancer without treatment

Survival rates can give you an idea of what percentage of people with the same type and stage of cancer are still alive a certain amount of time (usually 5 years) after they were diagnosed. They can’t tell you how long you will live, but they may help give you a better understanding of how likely it is that your treatment will be successful.

Keep in mind that survival rates are estimates and are often based on previous outcomes of large numbers of people who had a specific cancer, but they can’t predict what will happen in any particular person’s case. These statistics can be confusing and may lead you to have more questions. Ask your doctor, who is familiar with your situation, how these numbers may apply to you.

What is a 5-year relative survival rate?

A relative survival rate compares people with the same type and stage of cancer to people in the overall population. For example, if the 5-year relative survival rate for a specific stage of lung cancer is 60%, it means that people who have that cancer are, on average, about 60% as likely as people who don’t have that cancer to live for at least 5 years after being diagnosed.

Where do these numbers come from?

The American Cancer Society relies on information from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, maintained by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), to provide survival statistics for different types of cancer.

The SEER database tracks 5-year relative survival rates for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) in the United States, based on how far the cancer has spread. The SEER database, however, does not group cancers by AJCC TNM stages (stage 1, stage 2, stage 3, etc.). Instead, it groups cancers into localized, regional, and distant stages:

  • Localized: There is no sign that the cancer has spread outside of the lung.
  • Regional: The cancer has spread outside the lung to nearby structures or lymph nodes.
  • Distant: The cancer has spread to distant parts of the body, such as the brain, bones, liver, or the other lung.

5-year relative survival rates for non-small cell lung cancer

These numbers are based on people diagnosed with NSCLC between 2011 and 2017.

SEER stage

5-year relative survival rate

Localized

64%

Regional

37%

Distant

8%

All SEER stages combined

26%

5-year relative survival rates for small cell lung cancer

These numbers are based on people diagnosed with SCLC between 2011 and 2017.

SEER stage

5-year relative survival rate

Localized

29%

Regional

18%

Distant

3%

All SEER stages combined

7%

 

Understanding the numbers

  • These numbers apply only to the stage of the cancer when it is first diagnosed. They do not apply later on if the cancer grows, spreads, or comes back after treatment.
  • These numbers don’t take everything into account. Survival rates are grouped based on how far the cancer has spread. But other factors, such as the subtype of NSCLC, gene changes in the cancer cells, your age and overall health, and how well the cancer responds to treatment, can also affect your outlook.
  • People now being diagnosed with NSCLC or SCLC may have a better outlook than these numbers show. Treatments have improved over time, and these numbers are based on people who were diagnosed and treated at least five years earlier.

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Lung cancer is one of the most common and serious types of cancer. Around 47,000 people are diagnosed with the condition every year in the UK.

There are usually no signs or symptoms in the early stages of lung cancer, but many people with the condition eventually develop symptoms including:

  • a persistent cough
  • coughing up blood
  • persistent breathlessness
  • unexplained tiredness and weight loss
  • an ache or pain when breathing or coughing

You should see a GP if you have these symptoms.

Types of lung cancer

Cancer that begins in the lungs is called primary lung cancer. Cancer that spreads to the lungs from another place in the body is known as secondary lung cancer. This page is about primary lung cancer.

There are two main forms of primary lung cancer. These are classified by the type of cells in which the cancer starts growing. They are:

  • non-small-cell lung cancer – the most common form, accounting for more than 87% of cases. It can be one of three types: squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma or large-cell carcinoma.
  • small-cell lung cancer – a less common form that usually spreads faster than non-small-cell lung cancer.

The type of lung cancer you have determines which treatments are recommended.

Who's affected

Lung cancer mainly affects older people. It's rare in people younger than 40. More than 4 out of 10 people diagnosed with lung cancer in the UK are aged 75 and older.

Although people who have never smoked can develop lung cancer, smoking is the most common cause (accounting for about 72% of cases). This is because smoking involves regularly inhaling a number of different toxic substances.

Treating lung cancer

Treatment depends on the type of mutation the cancer has, how far it's spread and how good your general health is.

If the condition is diagnosed early and the cancerous cells are confined to a small area, surgery to remove the affected area of lung may be recommended.

If surgery is unsuitable due to your general health, radiotherapy to destroy the cancerous cells may be recommended instead.

If the cancer has spread too far for surgery or radiotherapy to be effective, chemotherapy is usually used.

There are also a number of medicines known as targeted therapies. They target a specific change in or around the cancer cells that is helping them to grow. Targeted therapies cannot cure lung cancer but they can slow its spread.

Outlook

Lung cancer does not usually cause noticeable symptoms until it's spread through the lungs or into other parts of the body. This means the outlook for the condition is not as good as many other types of cancer.

About 1 in 3 people with the condition live for at least 1 year after they're diagnosed and about 1 in 20 people live at least 10 years.

However, survival rates vary widely, depending on how far the cancer has spread at the time of diagnosis. Early diagnosis can make a big difference.

Page last reviewed: 15 August 2019
Next review due: 15 August 2022

What happens if lung cancer isnt treated?

Doctor's Response. More than half of lung cancer patients will die within one year of diagnosis even with treatment. Without treatment, patients may die even sooner. For any hope of survival, medical or surgical treatment is necessary.

How fast does lung cancer spread without treatment?

Rapid growing, with a doubling time of less than 183 days: 15.8% Typical, with a doubling time of 183 to 365 days: 36.5% Slow growing, with a doubling time of over 365 days: 47.6%

What are the signs of end stage lung cancer?

Symptoms that are common towards the end of life in lung cancer include pain, dyspnoea, delirium and respiratory secretions. Such symptoms need to be anticipated and addressed promptly with appropriate medications and explanations to the patient and family.

How long can a stage 4 lung cancer patient live without treatment?

Summary. Stage 4 NSCLC is an advanced form of lung cancer in which cancer has spread from the lungs to distant organs or areas of the body. The median survival time for stage 4 lung cancer is about four months.